New daily COVID case average falls to early July level

The daily average of new COVID-19 cases in Anderson County the past week fell to a level last seen in early July, about five new cases per day.

Last week’s average of 5.4 new cases per day is about a 40 percent drop from the average nine new cases reported per day during the previous week.

It’s the third straight week of a decline in the average number of new cases per day in Anderson County.

Although it’s falling, the seven-day average remains higher than it was in late June, before the case growth started to accelerate in the county.

The highest seven-day average, as calculated by Oak Ridge Today, was in late July, when Anderson County averaged more than 24 new cases of COVID-19 per day. July appears to have been the worst month of the pandemic so far.

During the past week, the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported in Anderson County has varied between zero and 12. The last time the county had a day when no new cases were reported was about two months ago.

It’s not clear what has led to the overall drop in new cases per day since late July and whether it might be related to the more widespread use of masks, including at businesses that started requiring them in the second half of July.

The county has reported 879 cases of COVID-19. More than 1 percent of the county’s roughly 77,000 residents have been infected.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 remained unchanged at eight in the past week, and the number of total hospitalizations since the pandemic began March 20 stayed at 34, according to the Tennessee Department of Health.

The county’s average daily positivity rate appears to have been staying under 5 percent recently, although it was over that threshold on Monday and Tuesday, when it was at 9.6 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively. World Health Organization guidelines say positivity rates should be at 5 percent or lower for at least 14 days before activities re-open.

The daily positivity rate compares how many patients test positive for COVID-19 each day to the total number of those tested per day.

The transmission rate in Anderson County remains just below 1 percent. It was 0.95 on Tuesday, according to the Coronavirus-19 Outbreak Response Experts (CORE-19) at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. Last week, the transmission rate was 0.98. When the transmission rate is below one, the disease is becoming less prevalent.

The number of active cases in the county continues to drop overall. It’s now below 200. The county reported 189 active cases on Tuesday. That’s down from a peak of 289 on Sunday, August 2. Active cases are total cases minus recoveries and deaths.

The case doubling time continues to increase. It was about 37 days on Tuesday. That’s up from 31 days last week and from 12 days in late July. A longer doubling time means the virus is not spreading in the community as quickly.

Anderson County has reported 682 recoveries from COVID-19, although it’s not always clear what recovery means for every patient.

There have been 20,725 COVID-19 tests in Anderson County.

COVID-19 daily snapshot

Here are the COVID-19 statistics for Anderson County on Tuesday, September 1:

• Total cases—849
• New cases—5
• Active cases—189
• Recovered cases—682
• Deaths—8
• Total hospitalizations (current hospitalizations could be different)—34
• Total tests—20,725
• Daily positivity rate—6.9 percent
• Total positivity rate (comparing all positives to all tests since the pandemic began)—4.2 percent
• Hospitalization rate—3.9 percent
• Death rate—0.9 percent
• Recovery rate—77.6 percent
• Case doubling time—37 days
• Transmission rate—0.95

Seven-day case and daily positivity rate averages

Here are the recent seven-day averages of new daily COVID-19 cases in Anderson County calculated by Oak Ridge Today:

• Week ending June 30—3.43 new cases per day
• Week ending July 7—5.86
• Week ending July 14—10.86
• Week ending July 21—15.4
• Week ending July 28—24.7
• Week ending August 4—18.6
• Week ending August 11—9.7
• Week ending August 18—11.4
• Week ending August 25—9
• Week ending September 1—5.4

Here are recent seven-day averages of daily positivity rates:

• Week ending July 9—5.45 percent
• Week ending July 16—9.37
• Week ending July 23—9.6
• Week ending July 30—8.7
• Week ending August 6—5.5
• Week ending August 13—4.8
• Week ending August 20—5.7
• Week ending August 27—3.6 (In the five-day period since then, the average daily positivity rate has risen to 4.8 percent.)

State, county statistics

Statewide, the seven-day case average climbed about 200 new cases per day during the past week, after falling for four straight weeks. The average was 1,377 new cases per day last week, but it climbed to 1,558 on Tuesday. Tennessee peaked at an average of more than 2,400 cases per day in late July, according to calculations by Oak Ridge Today.

Meanwhile, the seven-day average of deaths has fallen from 28.9 to 21.9, and the average number of hospitalizations per day has dropped from 76.3 to 66.1, according to calculations by Oak Ridge Today.

Here are the COVID-19 statistics for Tennessee on Tuesday, as reported by the Tennessee Department of Health:

• Total cases—156,329
• New cases—1,396
• Active cases—35,663
• Deaths—1,781
• Death rate—1.1 percent
• Recoveries—118,885
• Recovery rate—76 percent
• Hospitalizations—6,978
• Hospitalization rate—4.5 percent
• Current hospitalizations—912, with 170 pending
• Daily positivity rate—8.4 percent
• Total positivity rate—7.1 percent
• Average patient age—39

The first case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in Tennessee on Wednesday, March 4. Since then, there have been more than 2.2 million COVID-19 tests in the state.

The highest number of cases in the state is in Shelby County, which includes Memphis in West Tennessee. The case count there was 27,173 on Tuesday. There have been 387 deaths.

In Davidson County, 23,622 cases have been reported. In that county, 259 deaths have been reported. Davidson County includes Nashville in Middle Tennessee.

Other counties with case counts of more than 1,000 on Tuesday included:

• Hamilton (Chattanooga area), with 8,136 cases, up more than 500 cases in a week, and 76 deaths;
• Rutherford (Nashville area), with 7,868 cases and 70 deaths;
• Knox (Knoxville area), with 6,516 cases, up more than 600 cases in one week, and 59 deaths, an increase of eight deaths in one week;
• Williamson (Nashville area), with 4,422 cases and 30 deaths;
• Sumner (Nashville area), with 4,117 cases and 87 deaths;
• Wilson (Nashville area), with 2,870 cases and 31 deaths;
• Bradley (Cleveland area, near Chattanooga), with 2,501 cases and 16 deaths;
• Montgomery (Clarksville area), with 2,494 cases and 30 deaths;
• Putnam (Cookeville area), with 2,387 cases and 30 deaths;
• Sevier (Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville), with 2,246 cases and 12 deaths;
• Blount (Maryville area), with 2,021 cases, an increase of more than 200 cases in one week, and 17 deaths;
• Robertson (east of Clarksville), with 1,892 cases and 26 deaths;
• Madison (Jackson area, between Nashville and Memphis), with 1,839 cases and 44 deaths;
• Maury (Columbia area, south-southwest of Nashville), with 1,778 cases and 15 deaths;
• Washington (Johnson City area), with 1,771 cases and 13 deaths;
• Hamblen (Morristown area), with 1,665 cases and 22 deaths;
• Sullivan (Kingsport-Bristol area), with 1,663 cases and 25 deaths;
• Trousdale (Turner Trousdale Correctional Center), with 1,618 cases and 6 deaths;
• Tipton (Memphis area), with 1,470 cases and 15 deaths;
• Wayne (along the Alabama border, southwest of Nashville), with 1,439 cases and 3 deaths;
• Hardeman (south of Jackson), with 1,241 cases and 22 deaths;
• Gibson (Trenton area, north of Jackson), with 1,138 cases and 16 deaths; and
• Bedford (Shelbyville area, southeast of Nashville), with 1,127 cases and 14 deaths.

Here is COVID-19 case information about other counties besides Knox County that surround Anderson County:

• Loudon County has reported 963 cases, up 75 cases in the past week, and three deaths.
• Roane County has reported 659 cases, up 72 cases in the past week, and two deaths.
• Campbell County has reported 328 cases and three deaths.
• Union County has reported 227 cases and one death.
• Morgan County has reported 214 cases and two deaths.
• Scott County has reported 156 cases and two deaths.

COVID-19 is a new, contagious illness that can have respiratory symptoms and affect other parts of the body, and it can be deadly. It can cause a range of health issues that can last weeks or months, including fevers, body aches, fatigue, coughing, and breathing problems, among other reported symptoms. The long-term effects remain unknown.

It can be spread by respiratory droplets from coughing, sneezing, talking, and singing. There is also debate about whether it might be spread by airborne transmission.

The disease appears to be especially deadly to older patients, according to data from the Tennessee Department of Health. As of Tuesday, there had been at least 17 deaths among all age groups 21 years old and older, and 84 or more deaths starting with the 41-50 age group. The number of deaths continues to climb in older age groups. There have been between 187 and 585 deaths in the four oldest age groups: 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, and 81 and older.

The largest number of cases continues to be among patients who are 21 to 30 years old, followed by patients who are 31 to 40, and then patients who are 41 to 50.

While some people report no symptoms or mild symptoms, others become seriously ill from COVID-19, sometimes for weeks, and the effects can sometimes last for months. Others are admitted to the hospital, and some patients end up in intensive care and on ventilators.

To help prevent the virus from spreading, officials have repeatedly recommended that residents wear a face mask or covering when they are out of the house and around others, maintain a distance of at least six feet from other people when possible, and wash their hands frequently.

See the state’s data here and here.

See the CORE-19 website here.

See previous story here.