• About
    • About Us
    • What We Cover
  • Advertise
    • Advertise
    • Our Advertisers
  • Contact
  • Donate
  • Send News
  • Subscribe

Oak Ridge Today

  • Home
  • Sign in
  • News
    • Business
    • Community
    • Education
    • Government
    • Health
    • Police and Fire
    • U.S. Department of Energy
    • Weather
  • Sports
    • High School
    • Middle School
    • Recreation
    • Rowing
    • Youth
  • Entertainment
    • Arts
    • Dancing
    • Movies
    • Music
    • Television
    • Theater
  • Premium Content
  • Obituaries
  • Classifieds




ORNL model explores location of future U.S. population growth

Posted at 8:31 pm January 22, 2015
By Oak Ridge National Laboratory Leave a Comment

ORNL Population Map

This 3-D visualization represents projected changes in U.S. population between 2010 and 2050 as predicted by a new Oak Ridge National Laboratory model. Areas seen in red indicate higher levels of population growth, whereas the vertical spikes signify population growth with new land development. (Image courtesy ORNL)

 

Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a population distribution model that provides unprecedented county-level predictions of where people will live in the United States in the coming decades.

Initially developed to assist in the siting of new energy infrastructure, the team’s model has a broad range of implications from urban planning to climate change adaptation. The study is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“We do a census every 10 years because those data help us do long-term socioeconomic planning,” said Budhendra Bhaduri, who leads ORNL’s Geographic Information Science and Technology group. “Population projection numbers are important, but many pressing societal needs also require an understanding of where people are going to be. This has always been a challenge; we’ve never had a good method to make future projections spatially explicit.”

Advertisement

The new model builds on years of research in the development of two other ORNL technologies that supply geographical distribution of population: LandScan Global provides one-kilometer resolution for the world, and LandScan USA provides 90-meter resolution for the U.S. Incorporating regional variables such as land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, roads, and population movement allowed the researchers to refine future population distributions by county.

“We took the U.S. national population total and downscaled to the county level to examine how local population growths vary geographically,” said ORNL’s Jacob McKee, the study’s lead author.

In the study’s projections for 2030 and 2050, the researchers set constraints for each contiguous U.S. county under a business-as-usual scenario based on historical conditions. The team’s analysis of this scenario found that sprawl growth was projected to be most prevalent in the following counties: El Dorado, California; Maricopa, Arizona; and Riverside, California.

The researchers note that the current study presents one of many potential outcomes, and the model can be adjusted to consider additional variables and scenarios. For instance, extreme weather events or local investments such as new industries can drastically affect where people move, but these factors are impossible to predict decades in advance.

Advertisement

“Our research is a demonstration of a model that can be tailored to specific scenarios to measure population in different ways,” McKee said. “This is by no means a definitive answer of what’s going to happen.”

The researchers hope their model will aid in long-term planning efforts in a wide variety of fields.

“Changes in climate-induced disaster patterns, epidemiological events, and infrastructure planning underscore the need to quantify and map the current population,” Bhaduri said. “Predicting the distribution of future populations allows for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies.”

This research, conducted as part of ORNL’s Urban Dynamics Institute, was funded by DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy. The researchers anticipate making the datasets accessible to the broader user community later this year. The article’s authors include ORNL’s Jacob McKee, Amy Rose, Eddie Bright, Timmy Huynh, and Budhendra Bhaduri.

Filed Under: Front Page News, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy Tagged With: Amy Rose, Budhendra Bhaduri, Eddie Bright, Geographic Information Science and Technology, Jacob McKee, LandScan Global, LandScan USA, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Office of Nuclear Energy, ORNL, population, population map, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Timmy Huynh, Urban Dynamics Institute

Advertisements

 

Join the club!

If you appreciate our work, please consider subscribing. Besides helping us, your subscription will give you access to our premium content.

Most of our stories are free, brought to you by Oak Ridge Today with help from our members—advertisers, subscribers, and sponsors.

But some are premium content, available only to members. Those are in-depth, investigative, or exclusive stories that are available only on Oak Ridge Today. They generally require at least four hours to report, write, and publish.

You can subscribe for as little as $5 per month.

You can read more about your options here.

We currently offer five primary subscription options to readers, and they include benefits.

Basic

  • Basic monthly subscription ($5 per month)—access premium content
  • Basic annual subscription ($60 per year)—access premium content

Pro

  • Pro monthly subscription ($10 per month)—access premium content, get breaking news emails first, and submit one press release or public service announcement per month
  • Pro annual subscription ($100 per year)—save $20 per year, access premium content, get breaking news emails first, and submit one press release or public service announcement per month

Temporary

  • Temporary access ($3 per week for two weeks)

We also have advanced subscription options. You can see them here.

We also accept donations. You can donate here.

If you prefer to send a check for a subscription or donation, you may do so by mailing one to:

Oak Ridge Today
P.O. Box 6064
Oak Ridge, TN 37831

Thank you for your consideration and for reading Oak Ridge Today. We appreciate your support.

Commenting Guidelines

We welcome comments, but we ask you to follow a few guidelines:

1) Please use your real name, including last name. Please also use a valid e-mail address.
2) Be civil. Don't insult others, attack their character, or get personal.
3) Stick to the issues.
4) No profanity.
5) Keep your comments to a reasonable length and to a reasonable number per article.

We reserve the right to remove any comments that violate these guidelines. Comments held for review, usually from those posting for the first time, may not post if they violate these guidelines. Thank you for your patience and understanding. Thank you also for reading Oak Ridge Today and for participating in the discussion.

More information is available here.

More U.S. Department of Energy News

DOE, UCOR to highlight ETTP transformation, opportunities

The U.S. Department of Energy and its contractor UCOR will highlight the transformation of the East Tennessee Technology Park (the former K-25 site) and discuss the economic opportunities there during a virtual event on … [Read More...]

CROET president tells Oak Ridge story on national podcast

Teresa Frady, president of the Community Reuse Organization of East Tennessee, is the Spotlight Interview guest on this week’s episode of the Gone Fission Nuclear Report podcast, which covers U.S. Department of … [Read More...]

Workers devise strategies to clean up high-risk contaminated lab at ORNL

Innovation has been required as federal cleanup crews work to deactivate and demolish the final portion of the former Radioisotope Development Laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The structure is known as the … [Read More...]

Controlled burns scheduled on Oak Ridge Reservation

Controlled burns are scheduled on the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation. "The public should expect to see some smoke from this activity," a press release said. "However, smoke in this and other areas in … [Read More...]

Scientist-entrepreneur to talk about regenerative medicine, potential COVID treatment

A former molecular geneticist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory will discuss regenerative medicine and a potential treatment for severe COVID-19 disease patients and those who struggle with "long haul" symptoms. The talk … [Read More...]

More DOE

Recent Posts

  • REAC/TS welcomes new team members: John Crapo, Josh Hayes and David Quillen
  • NASA Postdoctoral Program seeks early career and senior scientists for prestigious fellowships at its locations across the U.S.
  • ORAU names Brandon Criswell associate general counsel
  • Update on downtown Oak Ridge Tuesday
  • TVA has virtual open house for Clinch River Nuclear Site
  • Science and supercomputers at ORNL topic of Mar. 8 talk
  • First Presbyterian offers free meals & groceries on Mar. 10
  • Secret City Academy student charged with terrorism after alleged shooting, bomb threats
  • ORHS Masquers presents ‘Into the Woods’
  • Oak Ridge’s first girl Eagle Scout named a “Scout of the Year”

Search Oak Ridge Today

About Us

About Oak Ridge Today
What We Cover

How To

Advertise
Subscribe

Contact Us

Contact Oak Ridge Today

Copyright © 2022 Oak Ridge Today