By 2100, Knox County could have 20-80 more days when the maximum temperature is above 95 degrees Fahrenheit, according to climate data used by the City of Knoxville and developed with help from Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The additional 20 days with a high over 95 is considered the best-case scenario. That would be almost three more weeks of high temperatures.

The 80 more days with a high over 95 would be a worst-case scenario. That would be close to three more months of high temperatures.

The higher and lower number of days appear to be correlated with, or caused by, higher and lower emissions.

There could be some variability in the temperature increases from year to year, but the overall trend would be up, according to the data, which used the NOAA Climate Explorer. (NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

An animated image based on the data shows projected changes from 2011 to 2050 in an eight-county region, including Knox and Anderson. Overall, there would be a general increase in the number of days with a maximum temperature above 95 degree Fahrenheit, compared to a 1981-2005 average. There could be some variability by location, even between counties. You can the animated image here: ORNL Climate Data Summary Movie. (The movie moves quickly through the slides after the animation; you can find a PDF version of those slides in the link at the end of this article.) [Read more…]